Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author was short puts on MRNA expecting stock weakness from offering news, closing the position at open after the announcement manifested. Betting against FOMO bidders post-offering.
Moderna is undervalued at current $60B market cap relative to Keytruda's $20B annual revenue and profit-sharing arrangement; long-term intersimeran adoption in oncology creates a multi-hundred billion dollar opportunity. The stock should reach $250-300 as the company captures a larger share of the $250B cancer market.
MRNA's cancer vaccine product development and 2026/2027 catalysts present opportunity for upside even from current depressed levels; stock had bottomed and positioned to recover.
Long call position on MRNA expiring January 2028 with $60 strike, now significantly profitable. The position is up 449%, indicating the author expects MRNA to remain above the strike price through expiry.
Author shorted volatility on Moderna by buying puts at open and exiting immediately on IV crush, capturing a quick $130k profit from mean reversion in implied volatility rather than directional price movement.
Author was bullish on MRNA awaiting trial results and mFlusiva news, buying deeply out-of-the-money call options (8/21 80c and 65c) at extremely low premiums, betting on a move back to recent highs around $85.
Moderna has cleared major FDA and regulatory hurdles; Phase 3 Intismeran data coming summer with fall FDA application should drive stock from ~$50 to $100+ on positive data. High short interest (~20%) creates potential for a squeeze to $200–300.
End of results.