AI energy demand will surge to 10% of US electricity by 2030, likely outstripping supply and driving nonlinear commodity price increases that will pressure semiconductor margins and valuations despite apparent PEG cheapness. Author is hedging via out-of-the-money puts.
Author has deployed 34k cash plus 11k margin into a 3x leverage semiconductor ETF with plans to hold through NVDA earnings, betting on upside despite acknowledged volatility and leverage risk.
Author is long 1,000 shares of SOXL (3x leveraged semiconductor ETF) at $11.40 cost basis, expressing conviction in broad semiconductor sector upside through a leveraged vehicle.
Semiconductor sector has rallied excessively and will revert lower. Combined with deteriorating macro signals (OpenAI missing revenue targets, rising oil prices), SOXL shorts via put options are positioned to profit as the market reprices semis downward.
Author is shorting SOXL, following the lead of Michael Burry who shorted the underlying SOXX semiconductor index. The position implies a bearish bet on semiconductor stocks.
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