Archive mode — the ledger is frozen as of August 24, 2026. Past calls and track records remain browsable; no new data is being ingested.
$TSM
3 thesesbullish 67%neutral 0%bearish 33%
Win rate (1w)
33% (3 resolved)
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Recent theses
Prices as of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
TSMC is the Hormuz Strait of semiconductors. I moved 30% of my portfolio over today.
TSM is severely undervalued relative to megacap peers due to geopolitical risk premium that is overblown; the company's 90% market share in advanced node manufacturing, massive R&D investment, and critical position in AI chip supply create a structural moat. With a 3-5 year horizon, TSM's valuation should re-rate significantly as it diversifies geographically and continues to dominate despite macro AI capex concerns.
At post $418.45·Now $408.12-2.5% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d—
3d+4.1%
1w-0.8%
1m+3.3%
3m—
6m—
1y—
HARD TO IMAGINE, BUT HERE IS YOUR CHANCE GETTING PAID SHORTING TECH - TSM
Supply constraints in the chip sector will negatively impact TSM as the first victim. The author is taking a bearish position expecting downside from these structural constraints.
At post $411.68·Now $408.12-0.9% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d—
3d-1.7%
1w-1.8%
1m+0.8%
3m+1.6%
6m—
1y—
I hear that everyone’s a millionaire now - $2M
Author holds TSM as part of a $2M portfolio that has appreciated significantly. Despite expecting near-term market pulldown, maintaining long stock position while hedging with covered calls.
At post $419.50·Now $408.12-2.7% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
1d-1.3%
3d-1.9%
1w-4.7%
1m-1.0%
3m-0.6%
6m—
1y—