Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Microsoft's forward owner earnings yield is only 3.7% base case and 0.5% strict case, falling significantly short of the author's >10% valuation requirement for value-oriented investing.
Author has generated significant gains from deep in-the-money LEAPS on Microsoft with mid-2027 and 2028 expirations at deep value strikes, positioning for long-term upside.
OpenAI will lose the AI race to competitors like Claude and Muse due to lack of moat, and Microsoft's shift away from OpenAI toward Claude signals weakness in MSFT's AI strategy and valuation.
MSFT is trading at a 19x forward PE with 20-30% growth expectations and faces limited disruption risk to Office; the company maintains a fortress balance sheet with significant cash flow and no recent equity or debt issuance.
Author is long Microsoft shares purchased at $360 targeting $765 by 2030, citing strong brand moat across M365, Azure, and Copilot, combined with strategic investments in AI (Anthropic and OpenAI), quantum computing, and gaming that create durable competitive advantages.
Author maintains a $280k position in MSFT calls and skimmed some gains from this position to fund the NFLX double-down, indicating continued bullish conviction on Microsoft.
MSFT is cheap relative to sentiment and prints money. The company's ubiquitous software ecosystem and cloud presence ensure sustained cash generation despite current negative sentiment.
Author is bullish on MSFT despite weak recent sentiment, betting on upside through call spreads across September, October, and November expirations at strikes ranging from $400–$420. Position sizing of 130 calls total reflects conviction in recovery.
Author deployed $43k into MSFT LEAP calls with June 2028 expiry, expecting significant upside to prior ATH of $550 over the next two years. Positioned for breakeven at $443 with profit exceeding $100k at previous highs.
Microsoft's recent stock decline due to perceived low Copilot adoption is a buying opportunity. The company's unmatched enterprise moat across Excel, Outlook, Teams, and Azure, combined with strategic investments in AI infrastructure and cost-effective models like Maia 200, positions it to dominate the AI-driven enterprise automation wave while capturing expanding usage-based AI billing.
Author is buying long-dated MSFT call options (leaps) with plans to roll the position, indicating a bullish directional bet on Microsoft stock.
Author has deployed $760k (life savings and margin) into MSFT at two price points ($398 and $358), indicating conviction in near-term upside despite acknowledging risk.
MSFT shares purchased at ~$412 cost basis with sold calls now expired. Author expects price appreciation to $420+ and an IV spike heading into July earnings.
Microsoft is undervalued at a P/E of 22 (historically low) versus peers like Alphabet and Amazon. Strong Azure growth catalysts from OpenAI's ChatGPT deployment and broader cloud adoption will justify a return to historical 30-35 P/E multiples.
Microsoft has underperformed for 6 months while earnings grew 73%, pushing P/E ratios to mid-2017 levels well below peers (Google 28, Nvidia 31, Apple 36). With Azure growing 39-40% YoY, $627B in backlog revenue, and a 38% net margin, the company is positioned to regain valuation ground as demand translates into future earnings.
Author holds 100 shares of MSFT purchased on margin at $429.60, adjusted down to $415.71 through covered call premium. Position is underwater relative to current price while incurring $12/day margin interest. Author is not actively trading anymore and appears uncertain about near-term direction.
Microsoft is held as a long-term core position in a diversified SaaS portfolio alongside ServiceNow. The author remains committed to this position as part of a broad tech and cloud exposure strategy.
Microsoft's dominant position across enterprise software, cloud (Azure), and AI tools creates an unbreakable moat and pricing power. Azure accelerating to 40% growth with strong balance sheet supports sustained upside as mega caps rotate higher.
Microsoft is a long-term compounder that will obviously outperform in retrospect. The author believes it's a high-conviction bet worth committing significant capital to.
Author bought MSFT near $400 support after a multi-week decline, executing quick scalping trades on intraday moves. Noted the stock's strong $20-point pop despite broader market weakness and European tech skepticism, suggesting underlying strength at current levels.