$USO - Oil Futures: Will it invert? Will the SPR deplete?
Oil futures curve is shifting from immediate backwardation to persistent structural scarcity as SPR depletion accelerates and the Strait of Hormuz closure continues. Future oil contracts are rising faster than spot, signaling the market is pricing in a prolonged supply crisis that could worsen into 2027, particularly as the SPR hits its floor and creates a second shock wave.
At post $134.64·Now $131.96-2.0% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
“Long USO position shown in open position screenshot (specific quantity, strike, expiry not clearly legible from image description)”
Oil Shock Cannot Be Avoided
Oil shortage driven by strait disruptions and geopolitical escalation will surge crude prices. Supply constraints from blocked shipping routes, rising insurance costs, and strategic reserve refilling by major economies support undervalued crude oil that will spike either through geopolitical conflict or fundamental supply-demand imbalance.
At post $126.60·Now $131.96+4.2% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
Author is shorting oil due to a dual-pressure thesis: surging supply from Iran (Hormuz reopening), Venezuela, US shale, and potentially Russia (via Ukraine resolution), combined with structurally moderating demand driven by EV adoption, energy efficiency, and China's shift toward alternatives and self-reliance. The resulting oversupply should drive crude prices lower over several years.
At post $111.26·Now $131.96+18.6% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
USO has been dropping on false promises of a Middle East peace deal that will open the Strait of Hormuz toll-free. Trump is posturing about an agreement he needs to approve, but the Camp David signing fell through when Iran backed out. The strait will remain constrained by tolls regardless, meaning current optimism is unwarranted.
At post $130.78·Now $131.96+0.9% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
Falling global oil inventories, refinery capacity constraints, and strong Asian demand will trigger a supply shock. Once inventory buffers deplete, prices will surge as there are limited alternatives to increased production.
At post $144.27·Now $131.96-8.5% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
In 19k of USO calls because 150 dollar oil is fking stupid
Oil prices spiked to $150 due to geopolitical tensions but historically all oil spikes retrace when conflicts resolve. Author expects war to end under Trump administration, driving oil prices lower and call options on USO sharply higher.
At post $152.96·Now $131.96-13.7% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
In 20k of USO puts because 150 dollar oil is fking stupid
Oil at $150 is unsustainably elevated and will retrace when geopolitical tensions ease. Historical oil spikes have always retraced, and current prices are driven by temporary POTUS policy, making long-dated puts a favorable risk/reward trade.
At post $152.96·Now $131.96-13.7% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
“1,000 barrels for $96.73 cost basis, financially settled against physical barrels for June Delivery”
MCL / USO Oil Yolo
Oil has tanked to below $100/barrel due to market crisis, but the author believes a recovery is likely and bought 1,000 barrels at $96.73 cost basis for June delivery. A single positive catalyst could trigger a 5-10k profit overnight.
At post $138.66·Now $131.96-4.8% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
Betting big on re-escalation and realization of the ignored oil shock
Author expects escalation in Middle East tensions and a delayed market realization of oil supply shocks. Current market highs ignore fundamental oil disruption risks that will surface by summer, triggering a major sell-off that benefits oil positions.
At post $133.59·Now $131.96-1.2% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
Oil prices are being ignored by the market and will see deterioration. Author plans to short USO via put options if prices hit $150, betting on a pullback in energy prices.
At post $133.59·Now $131.96-1.2% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
Strait of Hormuz closure and failed Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire will disrupt oil supply. Despite today's drop, the supply shock has not yet reached US markets; oil will surge within a week as tanker delays resolve and global demand responds to scarcity.
At post $124.58·Now $131.96+5.9% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET
[Axios] Israel strikes Iran: Explosions in Tehran, sirens in Israel
Crude oil is spiking in response to geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran strikes). The author expects oil prices to remain elevated going forward, which could push CPI higher in the next report.
At post $75.05·Now $131.96+75.8% since postedas of Aug 24, 1:28 PM ET