Shorting oil
Author is shorting oil due to a dual-pressure thesis: surging supply from Iran (Hormuz reopening), Venezuela, US shale, and potentially Russia (via Ukraine resolution), combined with structurally moderating demand driven by EV adoption, energy efficiency, and China's shift toward alternatives and self-reliance. The resulting oversupply should drive crude prices lower over several years.
At post $111.26·Now $117.79+5.9% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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USO NACHO YOLO
USO has been dropping on false promises of a Middle East peace deal that will open the Strait of Hormuz toll-free. Trump is posturing about an agreement he needs to approve, but the Camp David signing fell through when Iran backed out. The strait will remain constrained by tolls regardless, meaning current optimism is unwarranted.
At post $130.78·Now $117.79-9.9% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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You Only Love Oil
Falling global oil inventories, refinery capacity constraints, and strong Asian demand will trigger a supply shock. Once inventory buffers deplete, prices will surge as there are limited alternatives to increased production.
At post $144.27·Now $117.79-18.4% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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Long USO calls · 19000 contracts
In 19k of USO calls because 150 dollar oil is fking stupid
Oil prices spiked to $150 due to geopolitical tensions but historically all oil spikes retrace when conflicts resolve. Author expects war to end under Trump administration, driving oil prices lower and call options on USO sharply higher.
At post $152.96·Now $117.79-23.0% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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u/samvarr · 56d ago1 prior · awaiting results Long USO $80P exp Dec 15
In 20k of USO puts because 150 dollar oil is fking stupid
Oil at $150 is unsustainably elevated and will retrace when geopolitical tensions ease. Historical oil spikes have always retraced, and current prices are driven by temporary POTUS policy, making long-dated puts a favorable risk/reward trade.
At post $152.96·Now $117.79-23.0% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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u/trsx5 · 58d ago2 prior · awaiting results “Biggest plays: $LLY / $AMZN / $USO”
After 4 years.. i did it. +107K (realized) YTD.
One of the three biggest winning plays YTD contributing to the +107K realized gain, timed around the Iran war geopolitical event.
At post $149.29·Now $117.79-21.1% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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“1,000 barrels for $96.73 cost basis, financially settled against physical barrels for June Delivery”
MCL / USO Oil Yolo
Oil has tanked to below $100/barrel due to market crisis, but the author believes a recovery is likely and bought 1,000 barrels at $96.73 cost basis for June delivery. A single positive catalyst could trigger a 5-10k profit overnight.
At post $138.66·Now $117.79-15.1% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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Betting big on re-escalation and realization of the ignored oil shock
Author expects escalation in Middle East tensions and a delayed market realization of oil supply shocks. Current market highs ignore fundamental oil disruption risks that will surface by summer, triggering a major sell-off that benefits oil positions.
At post $133.59·Now $117.79-11.8% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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“short $USO via put options once $USO hits $150”
Jr. Burry SOXL short
Oil prices are being ignored by the market and will see deterioration. Author plans to short USO via put options if prices hit $150, betting on a pullback in energy prices.
At post $133.59·Now $117.79-11.8% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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“calls (on OIL)”
Straight of Hormuz still closed
Strait of Hormuz closure and failed Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire will disrupt oil supply. Despite today's drop, the supply shock has not yet reached US markets; oil will surge within a week as tanker delays resolve and global demand responds to scarcity.
At post $124.58·Now $117.79-5.5% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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“opened the shorts the moment the ceasefire was announced”
Gentlemen, I shorted Oil
Opened short position on oil following ceasefire announcement, expecting price decline as geopolitical risk premium dissipates.
At post $138.08·Now $117.79-14.7% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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[Axios] Israel strikes Iran: Explosions in Tehran, sirens in Israel
Crude oil is spiking in response to geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran strikes). The author expects oil prices to remain elevated going forward, which could push CPI higher in the next report.
At post $75.05·Now $117.79+57.0% since postedas of Jul 13, 4:59 PM ET
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