“Exited position (sold)”
FICO in Q3 fund letters: 2 managers kept it, 3 sold it. Here is what each one wrote.
Three institutional managers exited FICO citing regulatory and competitive pressure from the FHFA's effort to promote VantageScore as an alternative to FICO's credit scoring dominance. They believe this regulatory threat will substantially limit FICO's pricing power and margin expansion for several years, despite the company's historical 20% EPS growth track record.
At post $781.07·Now $815.31+4.4% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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When do we start to consider FICO a buy?
FICO trades at an attractive 18x PE after a 70% drawdown from ATH, with revenue growing at 20% YoY and stable 50%+ operating margins. The company's monopoly position remains defensible against competitors like VantageScore without regulatory intervention, offering exceptional risk/reward for a quality compounder once political focus subsides.
At post $740.00·Now $815.31+10.2% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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Near 52-week low names you are accumulating or on your watchlist?
FICO is trading near 52-week lows. While the author acknowledges moat erosion risks, the current price provides an attractive entry point for a closer examination of the business fundamentals.
At post $592.47·Now $815.31+37.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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How Cooked is FICO Stock??
FICO has sold off 56% despite accelerating fundamentals (revenue growth from 37% to 49%), maintains a durable moat despite Vantage competition, and is innovating with products like FICO 10T. The stock appears undervalued as the market overprices competitive threats that may not materially erode FICO's entrenched position in lending ecosystems.
At post $617.87·Now $815.31+31.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-4.1%
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“FICO puts”
FICO puts gainz. Thank you Steve Eisman for the recommendation.
The author is profiting from put options on FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation), following a recommendation from Steve Eisman. The post celebrates realized gains from betting on FICO's decline.
At post $617.87·Now $815.31+31.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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$FICOr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish u/Weldobud · 25d agono track record yet FICO - is this now a falling knife or another Visa / Mastercard temporary decline?
FICO has fallen sharply on credit score market opening fears, but the business remains solid and the stock is approaching attractive valuations. The credit rating business will persist, switching costs and customer trust create a durable moat, and FICO is likely to retain significant market share despite new competition.
At post $617.87·Now $815.31+31.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-4.1%
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“Rotating into FICO, with noted debt concerns”
I’m rotating some money out of AI. This may age terribly.
FICO at $864 offers approximately 5% economic FCF yield with 11% growth requirement to meet the hurdle, though the author has slight debt concerns; still preferable to overvalued AI names.
At post $840.89·Now $815.31-3.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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FICO is attractive here, despite the bad optics
Despite recent regulatory headwinds from competitor VantageScore and aggressive historical pricing, FICO maintains a durable moat through securitization markets where institutional investors model risk exclusively on FICO scores. The spread premium FICO commands in mortgage-backed securities is economically immense enough that banks and borrowers will continue paying for FICO pulls even at elevated prices.
At post $879.62·Now $815.31-7.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-2.6%
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I spent the summer on FICO reading every deep dive and sell side research. Here's where I think they all go wrong
FICO is experiencing a duration write-down despite ~40% earnings growth and raised guidance; the market is pricing down the duration of premium returns, not the earnings themselves. The author's variant thesis is that FICO's moat is more durable than consensus analysis suggests (one coordination standard, not five separate moats), positioning the stock as modestly bullish at $985.
At post $991.35·Now $815.31-17.8% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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Is FICO finally undervalued now or it's still a value trap?
FICO's formerly monopolistic credit-scoring position is eroding as VantageScore 4.0 gains FHFA approval for mortgage lending, converting the market from a monopoly to a duopoly. The 20% stock decline reflects structural competitive pressure that may persist despite FICO's quality edge.
At post $932.26·Now $815.31-12.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
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