Why NVDA is HIGH RISK and not even close to a value
NVDA faces significant risk from vendor financing arrangements where 25% of 2028 revenue depends on circular financing with companies like CoreWeave. As credit markets price these customers as distressed (15% yields on unsecured debt), NVDA is ultimately on the hook for these liabilities, paralleling Lucent's fatal 24% vendor-financed revenue exposure. Additionally, hyperscalers are diversifying away from NVDA and developing competing software to reduce lock-in, exposing overvaluation risks.
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“I own NVIDIA”
Burry says NVIDIA's GPU "resale value" chart is really a rent forecast. I checked the source: he's right. I still don't think it's a reason to short NVIDIA.
NVIDIA's GPU rental economics remain sound despite Burry's concerns about resale values being rent forecasts. The memory shortage is backed by buyer demand and runs past Burry's September 2027 puts, while neocloudcompanies' financing is appropriately priced for risk, leaving the company with a 52-65% downside cushion in GPU rents before returns collapse.
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Long NVDA · 350 contracts
Absolute YOLO - 350 NVDA contracts expiring in 2 trading days ($16k)
NVDA crushed earnings and CEO Jensen delivered positive guidance at GS conference despite recent weakness. Author expects a 2-4% pop tomorrow, betting 350 short-dated contracts expiring in 2 days to capture the rebound.
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The Next Big Short: AI Hotties on Instagram & OnlyFans Are About to Nuke the housing market
AI-generated models are replacing human influencers, creating massive demand for AI compute infrastructure. This trend fuels NVIDIA's core business and represents a structural secular growth driver as the influencer-to-AI-model shift accelerates.
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Sold 1,022,239 @ $230.51 avg · $235,636,867 · 2026-09-03
Form 4: STEVENS MARK A sold NVDA
STEVENS MARK A (Director at NVIDIA CORP) reported an open-market sale of 1,022,239 shares of NVDA at an average $230.51, roughly $235,636,867, in a Form 4 filed 2026-09-08.
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My completely regarded analysis of the AI trade. Read before you buy 0DTEs.
Nvidia is infrastructure plays caught in the middle of AI hype cycles. AI pure-plays like Nvidia face near-term headwinds as Wall Street realizes model limitations, but long-term survivors will own AI infrastructure, making them bullish over multi-year horizons.
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“$25k expiring Friday”
NVDA is going to rip higher all week I’m sure of it. $25k expiring Friday
NVDA will rally strongly this week as the market digests blockbuster earnings; the author is betting on upside expiration Friday.
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Long NVDA $225P exp Aug 28
$30,000 YOLO NVDA $225 strike 8/28 put - Be a Good Player, Risk giving half of it all back
Author is bearish on NVDA and has entered a $30,000 position in $225 strike puts expiring 8/28, betting against recent call-driven rallies. The thesis is directionally bearish with significant risk capital committed.
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“$50,000 YOLO NVDA 8/28 exp $217.5 strike call”
$50,000 YOLO NVDA 8/28 exp $217.5 strike call - when to take profit?
Author is bullish on NVDA ahead of earnings, citing Michael Burry's call position as validation. The $50k YOLO into call options implies confidence in near-term upside before expiry.
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Supply constraints Nvidia
Nvidia faces structural headwinds from political backlash against data center buildout and power consumption concerns, combined with slowing capex deployment despite supply-chain efforts. Multiple catalysts—bond market stress, failed IPOs of AI competitors, and local policy pushback—could trigger a significant correction in AI chip demand before year-end.
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Nvidia earnings proved 2 things again…
Nvidia is an amazing company; the author expresses admiration for the business and Jensen Huang's leadership, implying confidence in the company's fundamentals and trajectory.
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WSJ: Nvidia Has Become a Banker to the AI Boom, Putting It on Dangerous Ground
Nvidia is increasingly providing financial backstops and vendor financing (~$230B+ in lease obligations and residual-value guarantees) to sustain chip demand, a strategy that concentrates downside risk. A weakening in AI chip demand could stress its balance sheet and reduce investment values, mirroring the failed vendor-financing strategy that brought down Lucent Technologies during the dot-com bubble.
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“Late 2027 NVDA puts”
The AI Trade is Dead, OpenAI and Anthropic undershot the moon, pressure private equity
NVDA has overextended compute investments in LLMs that will never generate sufficient returns; the company and its peers will hold massive unrealized losses and are orchestrating a gradual share offload to retail before an inevitable market correction driven by the insolvency of AI models.
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NVDA grew revenue 85% and the stock rose 22%. Micron rose 725%. I think the interesting question is what you're actually buying at 21x.
NVIDIA's 21x valuation appears stretched when accounting for earnings quality. Unrealized gains on private equity stakes inflate reported earnings, high customer concentration (36% from two customers) poses risk, and $95bn in forward purchase commitments become liabilities if AI spending growth stalls. Share losses to competitors (Broadcom, Google TPUs) combined with decelerating hyperscaler capex could turn commitments from a moat into a problem.
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Nvidia's customer concentration went from 0% to 61% in four years, right as it agreed to insure 25% of its own customers' loans. Breaking down what the filings and credit markets actually show.
Nvidia's customer concentration jumped from 0% to 61% in four years, with three of the four largest customers (Google, Amazon, Meta) actively building competing chips. The $500B financing deal where Nvidia backstops 25% of collateral losses mirrors late-90s telecom equipment financing structures that preceded major writedowns, suggesting the market is mispricing execution risk despite credit markets already pricing in concern.
At post $217.32·Now $227.28+4.6% since postedas of Oct 13, 12:31 PM ET
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“large portion of portfolio moved to separate account for options trades; specific options positions referenced but not detailed (mentions 'shoot these bad boys to the moon')”
NVIDIA go Brrrr
NVIDIA positioned to benefit from strong chipmaker sector momentum, evidenced by CoreWeave's 14% aftermarket surge and robust earnings from related companies. Author expects bullish performance to continue through late month and profit from options positions.
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“All purchased on the 31st, aside from the puts which were today. Sold majority of remaining contracts by 10:30 this morning. Plans to open Aug 21st 220/230s if NVDA sees 210 again before earnings.”
NVDA 4500 -> 30K
NVDA broke above $212 resistance and is expected to continue higher. Author profited significantly from rapid move and plans to buy additional call spreads (220/230 Aug 21) if price dips to $210 before earnings.
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20 Investment write-ups to look at
NVDA trades at 20.8x P/E, well below its five-year 37.7x average, while the market expects 44% EPS growth. With 74% gross margins and the AI capex cycle still flowing through the company, current valuation is attractive relative to fundamentals.
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$NVDAr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish u/afcapel · 83d agono track record yet Circular financing is already a tell of softer Nvidia demand
Nvidia's aggressive financing of its customers—guaranteeing OpenAI's data-center deals, leasing data centers itself, and holding ~$42B in private stakes—signals demand is softening, not unlimited. Revenue is dangerously concentrated (54-70% from three hyperscalers and OpenAI), and every major customer is building custom silicon to exit Nvidia dependence, mirroring the Cisco lending playbook before the dot-com collapse.
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$NVDAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish u/xcrowsx · 84d agono track record yet NVDA: Investment Thesis, Current Valuation, Fair Price, Checklist, Due Diligence, and Watchlist Note
NVIDIA trades at 20.8x forward earnings—the lowest valuation in five years and below -1 standard deviation—while consensus expects 44% annual EPS growth, yielding a PEG of 0.47. Even with the author's conservative 20% growth assumption, the stock trades below fair value across bear, base, and bull cases, making it attractive for long-term accumulation within the $181–258 accumulation zone.
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