Palantir at ~$500B: can someone show me where my valuation math is wrong?
At ~$500B market cap with 81x trailing sales and 89x forward earnings, Palantir appears richly valued. A 5-year DCF model assuming 30-40% revenue CAGR and 30-35x FCF exit multiples yields only flat to low single-digit returns, requiring 50%+ sustained growth for meaningful upside. The author questions whether margins, growth runway, or exit multiples can justify the current valuation without unrealistic assumptions.
At post $208.67·Now $208.670.0% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
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“Late 2027 PLTR puts”
The AI Trade is Dead, OpenAI and Anthropic undershot the moon, pressure private equity
PLTR is overvalued and exposed to AI bubble deflation; the author expects the stock to decline as AI-related capital investments fail to materialize profits and private equity unwinds positions.
At post $175.89·Now $208.67+18.6% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d-1.8%
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Reddit vs AppLovin vs Palantir
Palantir operates a deeply embedded enterprise/government software business with strong revenue growth, but valuation and increasing competition present material headwinds. The structural stickiness of embedded software provides a durable moat, though the author expresses valuation concerns.
At post $175.19·Now $208.67+19.1% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d-0.7%
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Pltr yolo… again
Author is bullish on Palantir, expecting a substantial move to $200 by end of week. This is a speculative bet with minimal detailed reasoning.
At post $179.01·Now $208.67+16.6% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d-2.6%
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Pltr yolo
Author expects Palantir to rally above $200 this week following earnings, suggesting significant upside momentum ahead.
At post $175.23·Now $208.67+19.1% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d-0.2%
3d+2.0%
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“2x leverage $PLTR”
5/13/26 trades
Author believes in PLTR long-term and is holding a leveraged 2x position despite current losses, expecting the dip to be bought up like other trades taken that day. Willing to hold for another week to see recovery.
At post $130.05·Now $208.67+60.5% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d+2.8%
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When Will It Pop
Palantir has experienced unsustainable 800%+ gains driven by market speculation and AI enthusiasm rather than fundamental improvements. The author questions whether valuations can remain at these elevated levels.
At post $130.05·Now $208.67+60.5% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d+2.8%
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“65k in options”
Transferring the profits from META and SNDK into PLTR again! Not bad to give back what you earned the same way you made it
Author is reinvesting $65k in options profits from META and SNDK into PLTR, signaling confidence in PLTR as a vehicle for continued gains.
At post $144.07·Now $208.67+44.8% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
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3m-15.1%
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My last hurrah....PLTR to 1T
Author has strong conviction that Palantir will reach $1T market cap within 5 years. Deploying all available capital via $1,000 bi-weekly auto-buy of shares plus 2x $125 call options expiring Jan 2028, betting on sustained long-term appreciation.
At post $143.09·Now $208.67+45.8% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
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$PLTRr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish u/m86zed · 188d agono track record yet “I don't own PLTR”
Palantir ($PLTR) at $136: The CEO's jet budget grew faster than international revenue. I ran a DCF, Monte Carlo, and zero out of 10,000 simulations justified the current price.
At $136/share, Palantir trades at a severe premium (71x revenue, 215x trailing earnings) that cannot be justified by fundamentals. DCF and Monte Carlo analysis across 10,000 simulations value the company between $15-30, with zero simulations reaching the current price even under optimistic growth assumptions. The valuation ignores international headwinds, massive SBC dilution, and unrealistic margin expansion requirements.
At post $142.15·Now $208.67+46.8% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d+0.4%
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“put options on PLTR at price of $50 expiring in 2027”
Michael Burry Speaks - He bought put options on PLTR at price of $50 expiring in 2027.
Michael Burry has taken a short position against Palantir via put options expiring in 2027 at a $50 strike, signaling a bearish outlook on the company's valuation or fundamentals.
At post $170.69·Now $208.67+22.3% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d+3.2%
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palantir millionaire in <8months
Author holds a large Palantir position expecting the stock to reach $464/share within 5-10 years (October 2029-2034), predicting a millionaire-level gain from an initial $250k investment at $45/share.
At post $141.41·Now $208.67+47.6% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
1d-2.3%
3d-1.0%
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PLTR: The Most Overvalued Stock in History
Palantir trades at a 100x P/S ratio, the highest for any large-cap stock in history, with only 34% revenue growth and $3B in annual sales. Historical comparisons (Cisco, Zoom, and even Nvidia) show that severe valuation disconnects from fundamentals precipitate major crashes, and PLTR lacks the extraordinary growth needed to justify its premium.
At post $123.77·Now $208.67+68.6% since postedas of Oct 13, 4:01 PM ET
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