Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Betting that SPCX merger deal terms are announced within weeks, likely driven by midterm election politics. Author expects announcement-driven spike and plans to sell calls at extrinsic value on news.
Author bought Tesla ahead of earnings with plans to scalp but held due to strong gains, indicating bullish conviction despite the accidental position accumulation.
Author added TSLA as part of the updated portfolio allocation alongside doubling down on SPCX, indicating a bullish directional view.
Author is short puts on TSLA ahead of earnings, betting on volatility or that the stock stays above $380 by the 10/7 expiry, implying confidence in stock price stability or upside.
Tesla trades at extreme valuations (243x FCF, 263x earnings) unsustainable by fundamentals: it generates sub-5% returns on capital, pays no dividend, and trades 40x OEM medians and 10x BYD despite inferior profitability. Even at 50x earnings Tesla remains expensive without demonstrated capital returns to shareholders.
Author is bullish on Tesla with +100k in options positions, including direct Tesla options and leveraged ETF calls. They expect the position to be profitable soon.
After post-earnings selloff, averaging down on TSLA call options as a volatility play, expecting the initial correction to reverse over the next several days before Aug 28 expiry.
Author holds 7300 shares of Tesla and remains bullish despite recent losses, expressing hope for recovery and upside ahead.
BYD is outselling Tesla globally and offers competitive advantages with cheaper pricing and physical controls. The author observed minimal Tesla presence and high BYD adoption in Australia, suggesting Tesla is losing market share to superior competition.
Author holds put contracts on Tesla ahead of delivery numbers, betting on a negative print or broader weakness. The premarket move suggests the position is underwater and the author is expressing anxiety about the outcome.
TSLA will be the primary public proxy for SpaceX exposure during launch hype week, as retail investors seek the easiest access to Elon/SpaceX momentum. Interconnected business relationships and Elon narrative control create short-term call upside in a one-week attention window.
Author holds 223 Tesla $990 calls expiring Dec 18, 2026, betting on a surprise SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement that would drive dramatic upside. The merger would allow Elon to consolidate AI and robotics control across both entities, with shares trading in lockstep pre-close.
Tesla is overvalued with a PE ratio of 400 and poor financial fundamentals, representing a systemic risk to S&P 500 tracking funds which now hold significant exposure to it.
Author expects SpaceX to announce a merger with Tesla before or during the SpaceX IPO process, with the announcement likely at Tesla's June 11 shareholder meeting. A merger announcement would drive Tesla stock 30% higher immediately, with further upside if SpaceX IPO pops 50%, creating massive leverage on long call options.
Author bought 0DTE calls when TSLA dipped at open, betting on mean reversion from oversold RSI conditions. The position paid off significantly on positive news-driven bounce.
Author is bullish on Tesla due to multiple near-term catalysts including robotaxi deployment, HW4+ hardware, next-generation AI chips (AI5/AI6), Optimus humanoid robots, semi truck production ramp, and Tesla's stake in a potential SpaceX IPO. These catalysts position Tesla for significant upside similar to past mega-cap growth stories.
JPMorgan issued a Sell rating with a $145 price target, implying ~60% downside. Tesla missed Q1 deliveries and built excess inventory, signaling demand weakness and downward pricing pressure.
Tesla is fundamentally a mature car company with slowing production and declining revenue, not a tech story. The author expects the stock to remain below its all-time highs for 10-20 years or longer and sees no value until it drops 80 percent from current levels.
Tesla's $1 trillion market cap is not justified by its $7.13 billion annual profit (projected to fall below $6 billion due to ending EV subsidies), yielding less than 1% profit margin and representing poor value at current stock prices despite its popularity.
Tesla faces structural headwinds—multiple major recalls, 50% YoY sales declines in Europe and China, Waymo lead in autonomous driving, and severe brand damage from Musk—yet trades at 122x P/E, more than 2x peers like NVDA. The company cannot grow into this valuation against cheaper competition while suffering reputational collapse.